The BOM has been tinkering with its app. Here's how to read the rainfall forecast correctly
In order to come up with the forecast, meteorologists do a series of model runs using Australian and international weather models.At the end of this process there are a range of possible outcomes.
Using this communication method, even if the forecast pans out as the models and forecasters expect, the range communicated only covers 25 per cent of the possible outcomes. The new format expands the range of possible rainfall outcomes communicated to the public as well as doing away with the "chance of any rain".
While the second number represents a 25 per cent chance of at least that amount of rainfall occurring, the same top value as in the old format.This new range, perhaps more intuitively, covers the middle 50 per cent of possible outcomes. Further down, the app now also expresses the 75, 50, and 25 per cent chance of at least values directly as three separate numbers.
In the meantime, there is no getting around the fact that the website and app are communicating different rainfall ranges.
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