The U.S. birth rate is bouncing back from the pandemic
When the pandemic hit, the stay-at-home orders didn’t give American families more babies, instead, it generated a “baby bust.” Now, economists found that the so-called bust recovered just as quickly as the economy picked up.
Recessions and a decline in birth rates go hand-in-hand in history — as seen with the 2008 financial crisis and the 1918 influenza, when the pandemic started in early 2020. Similarly, economists predicted that a sharp decrease in jobs and household spending would result in a fall in conception rates.
The paper, which was distributed this week by the National Bureau of Economic Research, used five years of monthly birth data from October 2016 through September 2021, the most recent month available when the researchers conducted their analysis. The immediate drop in conception rate in the U.S. at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak was part of a bigger global trend for countries with higher incomes. Arnstein Aassve, professor of social and political science at Bocconi University, has found that seven out of 22 countries with higher incomes experienced a sharp decline in birth rates at the beginning of the pandemic.
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