The Future Fund doesn’t believe your super fund’s returns

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The Future Fund doesn’t believe your super fund’s returns
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OPINION: The Future Fund says its returns better reflect the pain in private markets in the 2022 financial year. And it says super funds must prepare for a new world.

Future Fund chairman Peter Costello came in all guns blazing on Wednesday morning as he announced the

And, in defending the Future Fund’s returns, Costello effectively took a shot at the numbers the superannuation sector posted for financial 2022, and particularly the way the funds have reflected the volatility in private assets, such as private equity, venture capital, infrastructure and property. But the pain in private asset valuations might not be done; Arndt says there is both a lag effect and a smoothing effect in private capital valuations compared to equity markets.He argues the large unprofitable tech companies that have seen their share prices hit so hard on public markets “tend to be much more volatile than earlier-stage private equity and growth private equity, which is the bulk of our portfolio. We think that our valuations reflect the market.

Arndt said the macro hedge funds with which the Future Fund invests returned 20 per cent in 2022, with several individual macro hedge funds returning more than 40 per cent.“We think skill [and] alpha strategies are really valuable and so, for us, that continues to be venture and private equity, private infrastructure, property and, in particular, macro hedge funds because we think they can do really well in an environment where equities are falling and inflation is rising,” he says.

The minus 1.2 per cent return delivered in 2022 was a long way off the Future Fund’s target rate of 10.1 per cent; Costello acknowledges the CPI-linked target was “not written for periods of high inflation”, and may have to change if the world is in for “long periods of double-digit inflation or anything like that”.Arndt says the Future Fund has one thing in its favour that some super funds might not: it has adjusted early to this new world order.

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