“This is by far the most formidable protest in the history of the country over the past two centuries,” a political economist in Sri Lanka says. “It has completely shaken up state and society.”
Last week, protesters in Colombo stormed the residence of Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the President of Sri Lanka, who had fled the country and later resigned over e-mail. After months of rising prices and dwindling supplies of food and medicine, discontent in Sri Lanka has reached a fever pitch. The country now faces a period of uncertainty, but also opportunity.
But I would argue the crisis actually goes even further back. Sri Lanka went through a civil war for twenty-six years, from 1983 to 2009. The end of the civil war coincided with the global financial crisis of 2008. When Sri Lanka’s war ended, in May, 2009, there was a lot of global capital flowing into emerging markets. But Sri Lanka was actually seen as not only an emerging market but a postwar economy.
My understanding is that the Rajapaksa regime was interested in developing closer economic ties with China, which was a hotly debated issue within Sri Lanka. The United States and India, which is very connected to Sri Lanka, had strong opinions about this. How big a change was the embrace of China, and did it have a role in the economic collapse we’re seeing now?
People have this expectation from the state in terms of addressing their economic needs. One of the reasons why the previous government that replaced the Rajapaksas was overthrown was that, in 2016 and 2017, there was a major drought and they really didn’t respond to the agricultural community. We have a history of these kinds of protests coming up on economic issues. When the pandemic hit, Sri Lanka provided the least amount of relief to people in South Asia as a percentage of G.D.P.
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