Engaging the Kim regime is hard. Not engaging it is much worse.
Jenny Town, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, told me the Biden administration’s lack of any diplomatic initiative toward North Korea has contributed to the current impasse. Over the past two years, Biden officials have repeatedly stated that they are open to negotiations with Pyongyang over its nuclear program with no preconditions. But they must know that’s a nonstarter for Kim.
“It’s been a nonpolicy. Just saying we are open to diplomacy is the most passive way of doing things,” Town said. “There’s an arms race going on in East Asia. Why would the North Koreans talk to us about denuclearization now?”with East Asian allies such as Japan and South Korea, aimed at intensifying military cooperation and strengthening deterrence. That’s wise — but not enough on its own. There’s no visible effort to restart talks with Pyongyang.
With any further sanctions blocked by Russia and China, the only way to persuade Pyongyang to talk is to put something it wants on the table. This need not be a concession on the military or nuclear front. Kim faces economic troubles, food insecurity and public health needs, all of which the United States could help alleviate.
“We are trying to convince an insecure country that it doesn’t need nuclear weapons by threatening it,” Town said. “We haven’t provided any incentives for North Korea to see us as a viable option.”Privately, Biden officials often say that there’s no sign the North Koreans are interested in talking to the United States. The long-used communication channel that runs through Pyongyang’s United Nations mission in New York remains in place, but it has gone largely silent.
To be sure, any Biden administration effort to reengage with North Korea would be very difficult; the chance of success would be low. There’s also a high likelihood it would prove a political loser for Biden, especially as he prepares to run for reelection. Engaging with North Korea requires both leadership and political capital.But it is precisely because Trump’s diplomacy was a such a mess that Biden should try again. Kim could be in power for several decades.
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