Our rankings are shifting in Republicans' favor as May's primaries get underway.
Pennsylvania -- a state Biden won in 2020 -- remains the seat most likely to flip, but this month's primaries will tell us a lot more about how competitive the contest to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey could be in November. Trump weighed in on the GOP field in early April, endorsing celebrity heart surgeon Mehmet Oz over former hedge fund executive David McCormick.
Having won a special election runoff in January 2021, Warnock is now seeking a full six-year term. He raised an astounding $13.6 million in the first three months of the year, which follows impressive earlier quarterly hauls, and is running direct-to-camera ads on issues with bipartisan appeal such as jobs, infrastructure and health care. Meanwhile, Democrats hope that Warnock and gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams will generate the base turnout they desperately need in a midterm year.
That's not why Wisconsin slides down two spots on this list. The senator remains unpopular -- 36% of registered voters viewed Johnson favorably while 46% viewed him unfavorably, according to a Marquette University Law School poll released Wednesday. Half of voters in the April Marquette survey said the phrase"cares about people like me" did not describe Johnson.
On the Democratic side, former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley has essentially cleared the primary field and has already pivoted to the general election."Looking at Washington, I think both parties are doing the job wrong," she says in a recent ad. Beasley outraised her potential GOP opponents in the first quarter of this year, but money won't be enough in a state Trump won twice, especially in a midterm year, when Democratic turnout has often waned.
Former state party chair Jane Timken has the backing of retiring GOP Sen. Rob Portman, but she too has appealed to Trump on the stump. Only state Sen. Matt Dolan is running truly outside the Trump election conspiracy lane in the GOP primary. Interestingly, his stock has risen in some recent polling. Either Timken or Dolan could appeal to a wider general election audience than their primary opponents, but they're far from the top of the GOP pack.
The month of May brings the first Senate primaries of the year. Ohio votes on Tuesday, followed by a near weekly stream of contests that will shape the midterm battle for control of the chamber. By the end of the month, the general election matchups in almost half of this year's most competitive races will be set.
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