Monday’s pre-parliamentary powwow laid bare the threats that, while not quite existential, are arguably as bleak as any that the Liberal Party has grappled with since its inception.
John Howard knows better than most how difficult the first term of a new government can be.
Thus, the Coalition needed to present itself as a viable alternative to capitalise on any failure. It may not win next time, but after being reduced to just 58 seats on May 21, there is ample scope to close the gap. After all, Bill Shorten took Labor from 55 seats to 69 seats in 2016.
Climate change was not just a critical factor in the Coalition’s poor election result in key demographics but was symbolic of a deeper values disconnect with the Liberal Party. It was the very same point that Tim Wilson, who lost his seat of Goldstein to teal independent Zoe Daniel, made in his book titledincluding a serious consideration of abolishing the capital gains tax deduction for investors,
Labor’s biggest risk is posed by the circumstances it inherited. The cost of living and interest rates make it vulnerable to the politics of grievance. As one MP who attended the Monday sessions observed, no one has ever won an election when voters are poorer and colder. But that’s about as good as it gets. One of the biggest challenges to any revival will be resources, something that will be exacerbated by its poor representation at a state and territory level.
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