Football is called a game of inches. But how much can an inch or two really matter? New data shows it's a lot.
By Andrew Beaton Updated Nov. 11, 2019 1:18 pm ET Midway through the fourth quarter on Sunday, the Pittsburgh Steelers faced fourth-and-1. They had a narrow lead over the Rams and were on their own 34-yard line.
Now, for the first time, the NFL is beginning to understand the more granular nature of the game. Tracking technology can distinguish exact distances and measure something that may dramatically change football strategy: the value of a single inch. And understanding that could have a huge influence on the fourth-down decisions teams make in the future.
The status quo of football data means that two plays marked as fourth-and-1—the moments when a small distance might have a drastic influence on the game—may be nothing alike. The NFL’s counting system lists anything between zero yards and 2 yards as fourth-and-1. So two situations that are identical in a box score could be, essentially, 72 inches apart. Other than visually guesstimating, there was no concrete way to differentiate between the two.
For years, quants have screamed that teams should go for it more often. Forward-thinking franchises like the Eagles and coaches like Doug Pederson who backed this trend have been hailed as progressive geniuses. The numbers backed up the idea that other coaches were overly conservative in these situations and cost themselves wins as a result.
This year, through Week 9, teams with less than a half yard to go have gone for it 36 of 48 times, according to the tracking numbers. When teams had a fourth-and-1 that was actually longer than a yard, they went for it only 24 of 58 times. For example: analyses have consistently shown the success of quarterback sneaks on fourth-and-1 and urged teams to run that more often. But the numbers show that logic may be flawed: sneaks have been so successful not because it’s a foolproof play, but coaches called them more frequently when they only had only inches to go. “We’re able to think about football a lot differently now,” Lopez said.
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