Will inflation finally relent? Is your job safe as recession looms? Here's what to expect from the U.S. economy this year.
Optimists and pessimists alike can point to their preferred indicators to predict how the year ahead is likely to go. In one corner, a recession looks probable this year. The Federal Reserve is also virtually certain to keep hiking interest rates, and wages continue to lag inflation. In the other are clear signs that last year's red-hot inflation is cooling, while the labor market keeps churning out jobs.
"The evidence suggests we're already past peak inflation. So the year-on-year rate of inflation should start to move lower," Michael Gapen, chief economist at Bank of America, told"However, he added,"It will probably take two to three years to get inflation back down to levels that we knew prior to the pandemic — in other words, low, stable and something we didn't necessarily talk about.
Fiona Greig, global head of investor research and policy at Vanguard, sees the economy at a turning point.
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