Uneasiness about divided, inward-looking America fulfilling its security guarantees is widely shared, if rarely spoken about, among ministers and officials in Canberra
Worries about America will only intensify as the next presidential election campaign dominates the headlines from mid-2023.If fear of China is the dominant narrative in the Australian strategic consciousness, another fear dare not speak its name.But it is widely shared among ministers and officials in Canberra. The same fears are shared by their counterparts in Washington.
During the Trump presidency, this concern about American resolve expressed itself in calls for Washington to lead once more the postwar international institutional system it had helped create. Former foreign ministerMalcolm Turnbull, when prime minister, underlined this uncertainty when he revealed in his memoirs that Australia would not sail into the 12-nautical-mile zone close to Chinese-claimed islands in the South China Sea because he feared US backing for an ally might not be forthcoming.
They suggested a requirement “to accept in our strategic thinking that America is now a more inward-looking country that will foreseeably give more attention to its domestic social and political challenges”. Australia needs “to have a clear picture of the potential limits to American support”. Last week, Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong warned that the US and China may “sleepwalk into conflict” if they don’t de-escalate rising tensions over Taiwan. He pointedly underlined that “decisions taken by both countries” put the relationship on a “worrying trajectory”.
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