One of Australia’s leading psephologists says the chances of Fatima Payman’s party securing even a single seat at the next election are slim.
The chances of Fatima Payman’s new party succeeding at the next election are slim according to one of Australia’s leading psephologists, who says the first-term senator would need many factors to swing her way to secure even one seat.
Gone are the days when candidates could be elected from a primary vote of half a per cent. “That’s been stopped,” Bonham said. Payman’s party would need to take advantage of a “long-term pattern of decline in the major parties”, siphoning votes from both sides of the political spectrum. But Bonham said even that would not be a guarantee of success. “Those independent campaigns by the teals relied on big spending in specific electorates,” he said.
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