As summer turns to fall in Ukraine, it might be Russian forces who find themselves on the losing side of the “rasputitsa” — the wet, muddy period caused by melting snow in the spring and heavy rains in autumn.
The rasputitsa, also known as “General Mud” or “Marshal Mud,” is well-known to military historians. During Napoleon’s invasion of Russia in 1812, French soldiers were unable to effectively retreat on muddy rural roads. More than a century later, during World War II, Adolf Hitler’s tanks and trucks sputtered in waist-deep mud while attempting to advance to Moscow.
“They’re either dirt roads, or they’re incredibly potholed,” Demus said about Ukraine’s roads. “It’s important to remind people that when we’re talking about moving heavy infrastructure or heavy machinery over these sorts of long distances, a tank could destroy a well-built western road depending on its weight, tread and other factors.”in the six months of the invasion.
“I don't think it will have the same impact in the autumn as it would in the spring,” Ryan said. “Having looked at the climate there, it appears — particularly in Ukraine, where spring [sees] melting snow — it has a larger impact than, say, in autumn. I don’t think it’s as likely in the autumn, as it might have been in the spring.”
“Right now, the Russians and Ukrainians are likely competing for territory in the belief that any ground they take before the end of summer will be safe from recapture throughout the winter as the war bogs down further,” the Janes analyst said.
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