Now is not the time to do anything more to slow the economy – it’s in danger of stalling, as unemployment data could suggest
The Sahm rule lets us get in front of recessions – so alerts should be flashing in the Treasury and RBA
Did anyone think that the 1990s recession only began in 1991 when the June quarter that year showed GDP had fallen 0.2% off the back of a fall of 1.3% in the March quarter? I doubt it. More likely everyone twigged rather earlier, given in 1990 the unemployment rate went from 6.1% to 8%. The 1990s recession, for example, was much worse here, while there’s a reason we call it the GFC and in the US it is the Great Recession.
In effect the RBA is arguing we will not go into a recession despite forecasting rises in unemployment that have led to a recession.
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