Of the recessions the U.S. has seen dating back to the early 1980s, none has come without an oil spike of at least 90%.
The "level to watch" is around $80 a barrel, said Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. The current spike, he said, is likely "unsustainable."
That inherently makes their impact more effect than cause and thus less impactful to the broader economy. McKeown sees three possible scenarios: the most likely case, in which Saudi production gets back online quickly and prices drift back to Capital's 2019 forecast of $60 a barrel; a second that entails "an extended outage" and possible further attacks that would take the price up to $85 a barrel, and third that would see a "full-blown U.S.-Iran conflict" that would push prices to $150 per barrel this year before falling rapidly.
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