Central Asia’s post-Soviet republics have maintained a studied silence on the war
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskThe war has set nerves jangling across Central Asia. The “Stans”, as the region’s five post-Soviet states are known, are, broadly speaking, allies of Russia. But the aggressive expansionism of their former colonial master is testing that friendship to the limit. None of the countries has condemned the invasion.
Kazakhstan, the biggest and richest of the lot, has long cultivated warm relations with Russia. It is a member of a collective-security treaty with its bigger neighbour, along with a handful of other countries including Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In January, when protests in several cities turned violent and threatened to destabilise the country, Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev, Kazakhstan’s president, invoked the treaty’s mutual-defence clause and asked for help from Mr Putin, who duly delivered.
Most countries are treading a fine line. Authorities in Almaty, Kazakhstan’s largest city, have allowed anti-war protests—though only once—and Kazakh police have fined drivers displaying the letter Z, a symbol of Mr Putin’s invasion. Yet two bloggers known for anti-Russian rhetoric have been jailed, too. Uzbekistan has supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity and declined to recognise the breakaway republics. But it has also leant on journalists who are noisily sympathetic to Ukraine.
Kyrgyzstan, which hosts a Russian military base, has come closest to offering support for Russia. Mr Putin’s recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk may have been “a necessary measure to protect the civilian population”, mused Sadyr Japarov, the president, on Facebook. But that was before the invasion. Since then his public stance has been one of neutrality. Uppermost in his mind may be the position of millions of Kyrgyz migrants working in Russia.
Whatever their leaders’ diplomatic manoeuvres, it will be hard for the Stans to avoid the economic fallout. The rouble’s collapse has dragged down their currencies. The Kyrgyzstani som has plunged by 15% since the invasion started and the Kazakhstani tenge by 14%. In part, that is because remittances from Russia are likely to slump, too: by a third in Kyrgyzstan and a fifth in Tajikistan, reckons the World Bank. That will hurt.