[This piece has been published in Restoring America to consider how House Speaker Pelosi's planned trip to Taiwan might hurt the U.S.'s global standing and ability to counter China.]
to consider how House Speaker Pelosi's planned trip to Taiwan might hurt the U.S.'s global standing and ability to counter ChinaHouse Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s, , planned trip to Taiwan is a Rorschach test for U.S.-China watchers. Some believe Pelosi should cancel the visit because the United States should generally avoid actions that worsen tensions with China. Others argue that Pelosi should go because Washington should not back down in anticipation of pressure from Beijing.
First, the timing of this trip is poor. Some who believe a crisis with China is inevitable argue that a near-term crisis might be advisable if it does not escalate into a larger conflict. These observers note that Xi Jinping’s preparations for the upcoming Party Congress could deter him from launching a major escalation. In other words, they suggest that this might be the best time for a crisis because it would put a ceiling on China’s willingness to escalate.
The situation would have been somewhat different in April, when Pelosi first planned to visit Taiwan. At that time, Beijing had less time to prepare its response options. The Party Congress was four months further away. Joe Biden had not yet muddied the waters by suggesting the United States has a commitment to defend Taiwan. And Mike Pompeo and Mark Esper had not yet traveled to Taipei and suggested doing away with the “one China” policy.
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