If two ongoing wars weren't enough uncertainty into which to deliver a federal budget, there's the precariousness of the Trump administration's trade agenda.
Looking back over the three previous budget speeches delivered by Jim Chalmers , there's a recurring word that jumps out. In each, the treasurer has pointed to a backdrop of global "uncertainty".In fact, "uncertain times" even made it into the headline of the pre-budget speech he delivered this week.Global uncertainty has only gone through the roof since the election to the White House of disrupter-in-chief Donald Trump . US allies and partners are struggling to keep up.
Even if Putin's demands were met and a genuine ceasefire agreed upon, the prospects of it lasting would be, to use the treasurer's word, uncertain. As Defence Minister Richard Marles puts it, there's "a massive trust deficit when it comes to Vladimir Putin". When a malignant force bears down on the country, Australians have shown a tendency to swing behind the leader.
Another former Treasury boss, Ken Henry, has also warned "there is no plan to control government spending". He says the current tax system punishes the young and will create a "looming intergenerational tragedy".The government bristles at suggestions it's scared of reform. It points to its stage 3 tax changes and "Future Made in Australia" plans.
When it comes to putting the budget on a more sustainable path, neither side is giving worried former Treasury bosses much hope.
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