It is not at all clear how much energy Ukraine will need, or how much can be supplied
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskSecuring reliable energy to warm Ukrainian homes has never been easy. But the ruins in Okhtyrka, a north-eastern city that resisted the Russian invasion, underline the unique challenges now facing planners. Although winter is still four months away, it is not at all clear how much energy will be needed, or how much can be supplied. Part of the country remains under occupation. Another part is under fire.
“It’s very difficult to model the risks, and it drives me crazy,” says Yuriy Vitrenko, the head of Naftogaz, Ukraine’s national oil and gas company. The most vulnerable bits of the system are rapidly being protected with new air defences, but even if incoming Russian missiles are intercepted, the falling shrapnel is dangerous.
Financing Ukraine’s energy system is just as problematic. Fierce debates rage inside the government about how much gas needs to be stored for the winter. In any normal year, Ukraine would seem well-stocked. It has 11bn cubic metres of stored gas, one of the highest totals in Europe, and is increasing that at a rate of one bcm per month.
In Okhtyrka, Naftogaz is trying to make sure that locals have plenty of options. A new gas boiler is being manufactured in nearby Kharkiv. But the hope is that local power needs will be met by a new biomass-powered boiler. The wood pellets that it burns will at first come from elsewhere in Europe, but eventually they will be sourced locally.
The prevailing mood in that market appears to have changed little, with most shoppers resigned to a very difficult winter. “You want to know what I think?,” asks Artyom, a fruit- and vegetable-seller. “I don’t think anything, because thinking means falling into a depression.”
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