Opinion The World Bank’s gloomy economic outlook might be too optimistic
is expected to shrink by 8.9 per cent. Both those forecasts are quite optimistic when compared to most private sector forecasts.
That would export tighter financial conditions throughout the rest of the world, probably triggering financial crises in some developing economies akin to the disaster that has unfolded in Sri Lanka. The impact of the war and sanctions on Russia and Ukraine’s other commodity exports could also feed further into their inflationary effects.
Those risks are magnified by the record levels of global debt after the most aggressive level of fiscal stimulus since World War II.In responding to the initial outbreaks of COVID, debt in the advanced economies grew at about twice the rate as it did during the 2008 financial crisis. Global debt topped $US300 trillion last year. It was about $US197 trillion in pre-pandemic 2019.
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