The research shows that the modelling of climate and the notion of global warming rest on solid physical science
THE NATURAL world is filled with complexity. The more closely scientists study everything from planets to atoms, the more structure they find and the more detailed their explanations must get. But if you want to predict the behaviour of such systems, how much detail do you need? To understand how Earth’s oceans will behave, say, do you need to track every individual molecule of water within them?
Drs Manabe and Hasselmann laid the foundations of the modelling of the Earth's climate that led to “quantifying variability and reliably predicting global warming”, according to the citation by the Nobel Committee for Physics of Sweden’s Royal Academy of Science. Dr Parisi was awarded his share for his discoveries around the “interplay of disorder and fluctuations in physical systems from atomic to planetary scales”.
Around the same time, scientists such as Edward Lorenz of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology were beginning to describe weather as a chaotic system—in other words, something that had so many interacting individual components, such as temperature, pressure, humidity and wind speed, that even small variations in initial conditions could result in enormous differences at a later stage.
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