Critics do not acknowledge that something bolder in economics might not be possible
are usually given in recognition of ideas that are already more or less guaranteed a legacy. But occasionally they prompt as much debate as admiration. This year’s economics award, given to Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer, was unusual both for the recency of the contributions it recognised and the relative youth of the recipients. Intentionally or not, it has inflamed arguments about the direction of the profession.
The prize, awarded in early October, recognised the laureates’ efforts to use randomised controlled trials to answer social-science questions. In an, researchers assess the effect of a policy intervention by dividing participants into groups, only some of which are treated with the policy. This year’s winners useds to study the effectiveness of anti-poverty programmes in developing economies.
Paul Krugman, another Nobel laureate, hoped through economics to become like a hero from Isaac Asimov’s “Foundation” science-fiction series, which portrayed a universe in which the mathematical understanding of society was so complete that crises could be predicted with certainty millennia into the future. By comparison, this year’s laureates’ achievements are modest indeed. What critics do not seem to acknowledge is that something bolder might not be possible.
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