A leading social researcher admits, for the first time in my career, she got it wrong. So did many others, including in the Coalition. What do we learn from it?
Even Burt the Psychic crocodile got it wrong. And so it’s been asked a million times since Saturday night – can we ever again trust opinion polls?
If from this point on we care less about published polling, journalists talk about them less and politicians refer to them less, well, that’s a good thing. The decline in public trust in institutions is well documented as well as our growing despair about politics and politicians. The high number of pre-poll votes, 4.7 million in this election, is driven by our desire for convenience but must also reflect the fact that people had made up their mind before the campaign even started and wanted to block the whole blasted business out.Many independents did well, capitalising on negative sentiment about the two parties.
This was the climate election, but not in the way people thought it would be. Climate change concern was a reason why we saw the Liberal Party loose seats like Warringah. But results for the LNP in Queensland and even One Nation in the Hunter show almost a swing in the opposite direction in parts of Australia where mining jobs are being threatened and where workers don’t feel like they can be nimble in their response to a changing economy.
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