Treasury Bond Yield Inversion Raises Worries Over Recession

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Treasury Bond Yield Inversion Raises Worries Over Recession
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One of the more reliable warning signals for an economic recession is shining alarmingly brighter.

On one end are shorter-term Treasurys, which get repaid in a few months or a couple years. On the other end of the chart are longer-term Treasurys, which take 10 years or decades to mature. Short-term yields closely follow expectations for what the Federal Reserve will do with overnight interest rates, while long-term yields move more on expectations for economic growth and inflation further in the future.

Gas prices, groceries, even airline tickets — it seems like it's all going up lately. It feels like the recently raised interest rate is intended to start slowing the economy. So we talked to John Leer, chief economist at Morning Consult, to help us understand why inflation is happening and how it will affect us.All the talk about charts and yields is tough to digest.

At 1.60%, the three-month yield is still well below the 10-year yield of 3.36%, so no inversion there.

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