A Monmouth University poll shows the former president leading Ron DeSantis among nearly every major Republican voting bloc except college graduates.
When those taking part in the survey were asked who they would like to see lead the Republican party in 2024, without being given a list of names, 43 percent named Trump. In comparison, 19 percent named DeSantis unprompted, down 27 percent from March and 33 percent from February.
Murray said that DeSantis will struggle to convince enough voters that he could win the GOP primary next year, even if he starts to claw back the deficit in the polls"If your main argument to Republican voters is that Trump wouldn't be the party's strongest nominee, you've got a heck of a challenge ahead of you," Murray said.
"There's a bit of a chicken and egg problem with assessing electability. As we found in our polling during the 2020 Democratic primaries, if voters back a candidate based on issues or character they also tend to feel that candidate is the most electable," he said."However, this still underscores the larger point in this poll. If your message to voters who support Trump is he cannot win, you are going to hit a brick wall.
"Even if you eat into the group who thinks he is only 'probably' the strongest candidate, you may still not capture enough of the Republican electorate to overcome Trump's hardcore base support," Murray said. The Monmouth University Poll of 655 Republican and Republican-leaning voters was conducted by telephone and online from May 18 to 24. The results have a margin of error of +/- 5.5 percentage points.
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