As US President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office, the effectiveness and future of sanctions imposed on Russia since the invasion of Ukraine are coming under renewed scrutiny. Trump has expressed a desire to minimize sanctions and has promised to end the war quickly, potentially shifting US policy. Experts believe sanctions and military aid will likely be bargaining chips in any negotiations. This article explores the impact of sanctions on Russia's war effort and their potential value in future negotiations.
Thousands of far-reaching sanctions have been imposed by dozens of countries on Russia n banks, businesses and people since Moscow ordered tanks to roll across the border into Ukraine in the winter of 2022.
A better measure of success, Guriev said, was to ask whether sanctions hampered Moscow’s ability to wage war effectively. And the answer to that, he and several other analysts argue, is yes. “It’s clear that sanctions did cause problems for Putin, did reduce the amount of resources in his pocket and, therefore, saved lives in Ukraine,” he said. Without them, he added, Russia might have even won the war by now.Russia’s economy has felt the squeeze. Spiralling inflation has prompted the country’s central bank to raise benchmark interest rates to 21 per cent. Despite enormous expenditures by the government to finance the war, overall economic growth is slowing.
Washington not only cut off most of Russia’s access to this system but also threatened to cut off any banks around the world that run afoul of its rules. That is a risk that even many institutions in China, which has aligned itself with Russia, do not want to take. Yet if sanctions have achieved more than some might have imagined, they have had less impact than many people had hoped.
Worries about reducing energy supplies when the price of oil was soaring and inflation was spiralling led the United States and Europe to weaken restrictions on the export of Russian fuel.
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