How would one have “priced” global markets in 1912 or 1937, when the writing already was on the wall, but nothing was predetermined, and one could still hope? Worth pondering.
Every brokerage house is coming out with its list of “Trump trades”, now that America’s triumphant caudillo is deemed a shoo-in for a second presidency.
The stated aim may be to free America’s stretched military resources for the larger showdown with China, but it looks more like cover for ideological preference and Lindbergh isolationism. Trump himself has just invited China’s Xi Jinping to take Taiwan if he wants, an invitation that will no doubt be accepted., Trump said he was “very cool to the idea of the US sort of standing up for and protecting Taiwan”, adding that the island “took all of our chip business. Why are we doing this?“.
“People here are getting seriously worried about what may be coming. We are not prepared,” said Samina Sultan, co-author of the report. IW says Europe would not fare much better than Germany under this Trumpian world order, and that implies a second Lost Decade for countries that have never fully recovered from the last one.where Marine Le Pen’s National Rally has just won a higher share of the vote than Labour in Britain, is by the far the biggest party in parliament, but is shut out by a cynical cordon sanitaire. It merely has to bide its time while its enemies deal with the horrors coming their way.
I strongly doubt that Europe will rise to the military and strategic challenge in any united way if the US walks away from Ukraine. The EU is more likely to fracture, with Poland and the Nordics pitted against a string of states willing to accept a Faustian deal with the Kremlin, while others bleat like sheep.Trump II lifts oil supply but lowers oil demand, ceteris paribus.
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