Forces took only three days to capture Aleppo from the Syrian regime, but the renewed conflict could be prolonged due to the influence of nearby wars in Ukraine and Lebanon, altering the balance of power in the region. The city, previously a major battleground during the Syrian civil war, was once again a scene of intense conflict as Turkish intervention supported the position of Hei'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a proscribed Sunni group.
Forces only took three days to take the city from Bashar al-Assad’s regime, but the Middle East’s newest conflict looks set to lastlaunched by Syrian rebels from the north west of the country last week has reignited a dormant conflict – and revealed a change in the balance of power caused not by one but two nearby wars, in Ukraine and Lebanon and the Middle East.
A ceasefire had remained in place since March 2020, but Assad’s backers have been weakened, and with it the Syrian regime. An attack that began on Wednesday forced a hurried retreat by government forces and by Saturday the city appeared to be in rebel hands, a reminder of the elementary military effectiveness of surprise.
As the Institute of the Study of War noted on Saturday, S-300 missile systems were withdrawn from Syria for the war in Ukraine in 2022 and Russia’s presence generally down-weighted. Moscow’s ability to provide sustained support for Assad will inevitably be constrained in the longer term.
“The real challenge to Syrian regime forces is the lack of willingness so far by Iran as the patron of Hezbollah and Russia to deploy military assets and air power to bail out the regime as it did before,” she added. An overt intervention from Iran in support of Assad may also provoke further bombing by Israel.
SYRIA TURKEY ASSAD REGIME TERRORISM WARS
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