U.S. job growth seen accelerating in December; record job creation anticipated for 2021

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U.S. job growth seen accelerating in December; record job creation anticipated for 2021
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U.S. employment growth likely picked up in December, culminating in record job creation in 2021, but the labor market could temporarily lose its luster as raging COVID-19 infections cause disruptions at businesses and schools.

The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is also expected to show the jobs market rapidly tightening, with the unemployment rate seen falling to a 22-month low of 4.1% from 4.2% in November. It will sketch a picture of an economy that closed 2021 on a high note, even if the public health picture is not as improved as officials had hoped.

Still, employment would be about 3.5 million jobs below its peak in February 2020. Estimates ranged from as low as 150,000 to as high as 1.1 million jobs. People who are out sick or in quarantine and do not get paid during the payrolls survey period are counted as unemployed even if they still have a job with their companies.

"Unfortunately, those anomalies may get more company on Friday," said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP in Jersey City. "We would shrug off the disappointment in the reported level if the seasonal adjustment factors are as stingy as we have assumed." Economists at Goldman Sachs expect participation will remain about half a percentage point below the pre-pandemic demographic trend at the end of the year, with most of the early retirees and some of the younger and middle-aged workers staying out.

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