The IMF has turned bullish on growth for most major trading economies this year – except for the UK where high interest rates and gas bills loom large.
| The taming of inflation and services-loving consumers have prompted the IMF to lift its forecast for global growth to 2.9 per cent this year. Asia Pacific, led by an ascending India and a reconnected China, will set the pace and most countries, except for the UK, will avoid a recession.
Many countries – most notably the United States – could yet avoid a hard landing thanks to consumers spending savings accrued during the pandemic and energy prices coming down. Lockdowns and other strict COVID-19 restrictions saw China slip below the global average growth rate for the first time in four decades last year, when the IMF believes it expanded by 3 per cent. It will revive this year as people and businesses are free to move again and is tipped to grow by 5.2 per cent.
The ASEAN-5 - Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand - will see a slow-down to 4.3 per cent this year and pick up to 4.7 per cent in 2024.
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