The latest poll by YouGov forecasts a parliamentary majority for Prime Minister Boris Johnson at 28 seats, down from 68 two weeks ago
LONDON - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson looks on course to win Thursday’s election though the race has tightened markedly and he can no longer be sure of a majority, according to opinion polls published on the eve of the vote.
YouGov, which accurately predicted the outcome of the last election two years ago with an elaborate survey that estimates the outcome in individual constituencies, cut its forecast for Johnson’s likely parliamentary majority by more than half to 28 seats. Two weeks ago it had forecast a majority of 68.
In a last minute pitch for votes, both Johnson and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn went on whistlestop tours of the country. While that would be the Conservatives’ best performance in seat terms since Margaret Thatcher’s 1987 victory, YouGov said the Conservatives’ tally could fall anywhere from 311 to 367.
Polls open at 0700 GMT on Thursday and close at 2200 when an exit poll will give the first indication of who has won.While there have been countless polls in the run-up to the election, YouGov’s “Multilevel Regression and Post-Stratification Model” is seen as the most meaningful, offering a prediction of seats, rather than just vote share.
The polling showed that Johnson’s main strategy to secure victory is to break down the so-called “Red Wall” of long-held, Labour seats across the Brexit-backing Midlands and northern England.
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