Analysis: There are signs the invaders are reaching exhaustion, but can the defenders cope with their military losses?
Three and a half months into thewar and what was once a fight across the whole country feels like it has become concentrated on Sievierodonetsk, the centre of weeks of combat that looks likely to have cost hundreds of lives as Russia appears to be closing in.now has 120 battalions inside Ukraine, but such has been the attrition so far, their strength is perhaps 40% or 50% of a normal full compliment of around 800.
Ukraine says its goal is simply to hold up the Russians, inflict losses on the larger invading army and reduce their morale. At one point, over the weekend, the defenders managed a short-lived counterattack but this seems to have provoked an even more intense bombardment from the invaders. A key question is whether Ukraine can cope with the losses it is sustaining. Estimates vary, but Oleksiy Arestovych, a high-profile Ukrainian military analyst and presidential adviser, said “up to 150 troops a day were being killed and 800 wounded”.
Olga Oliker, a director from the Crisis Group, an NGO, said that “both sides are competing to be the last army standing” although she believes that Ukraine still has considerable numbers of soldiers available, having “something like doubled” its army size since the war began. So Kyiv can hang on for some while yet.A potential Russian goal will be to try and secure the Donbas, before perhaps opting for a ceasefire, essentially to hang on to the Ukrainian territory it has gained.
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