While all eyes are now on the battle for the eastern town of Bakhmut, attention will soon turn to an expected counter-offensive that could start as early as April
1941 Britain declared “tanks for Russia” week, with factories churning out armour to “repel the savage invaders”. The wife of the Soviet ambassador in London christened the first tank personally: “Stalin”. The first Leopard tank to arrive in Ukraine, a gift from Poland in February, has remained anonymous. But it is the vanguard of a substantial arsenal coming Ukraine’s way. .
The flow of arms has accordingly turned from a trickle to a flood. Of all the military aid pledged by the Pentagon since the war began, 40%—over $8bn—has come in the three months since December 9th . One European defence official says that the infusion of arms agreed in Germany in January alone amounts to two-thirds of the total sent to Ukraine in all of 2022.
A Russian offensive that began in late January was intended, in part, to force Ukraine to commit these reserves, thereby making it much harder to mount a counter-offensive. In recent days, Russian soldiers and mercenaries have advanced deeper into Bakhmut, a town in Donetsk province that has been under Russian assault since last summer. But the battle for the town has resulted in far greater Russian losses than Ukrainian ones. And more importantly General Zaluzhny has avoided the obvious trap.
Western officials are divided on whether all this will be enough to eject Russia from the roughly 18% of Ukraine it controls at present. Only a battalion’s worth of soldiers will pass through Grafenwoehr each month; a large proportion of Ukraine’s army is still made up of mobilised men with limited experience. Ammunition remains a serious problem, because Western allies have been slow to ramp up production.
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