Ukraine has captured hundreds of square kilometres of Russia in a well-planned surprise attack.
The Ukrainian advance into Russia ’s Kursk oblast took almost everyone by surprise. Perhaps not the Russia ns stationed on the border, who reportedly tried to warn of a Ukrainian troop buildup, but the rest of us who watch the conflict closely did not think the Ukrainian army – under increasingly severe pressure in Donetsk oblast further south – had the spare manpower and kit to launch this operation.
Second, and perhaps most importantly, they picked a weakly defended stretch of the border to attack, near the Russian town of Sudzha, nearly 200km northwest of the closest frontline in Kharkiv, and 350km from the main frontline. It has been an impressive move. On top of concentrating elements of six brigades, many with western tanks and armoured fighting vehicles, without being attacked, they have have used deep reconnaissance groups to cause chaos and confusion ahead of the main thrusts. Crucially, they have also managed to establish and maintain an air defence and electronic warfare “bubble” over their advancing forces.
The damage done According to one “top Ukrainian official”, the operation aims “to stretch the positions of the enemy, to inflict maximum losses and to destabilise the situation in Russia”. The unnamed official added that the attack has “greatly raised our morale, the morale of the Ukrainian army, state and society”.
Will they stay or will they go? There have been reports of Ukrainian troops using mechanical diggers to build trenches inside Russia, which could indicate plans to try to defend at least some of the seized territory. Meanwhile, the Russians are doing similar, with a view to stabilising the lines. This will be their short-term goal, followed by the attrition of Ukrainian forces and the reducing of the pocket occupied by the incursion.
Russia Ukraine Ukraine Invasion 2022 Vladimir Putin Volodymyr Zelensky
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