Ukrainian attack on Russian airbase sends message to Moscow and beyond

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Ukrainian attack on Russian airbase sends message to Moscow and beyond
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Ukraine did more than destroy combat aircraft in Crimea raid, it scored a huge propaganda victory

But losses are a fact of war, so a further question is: what military and political impact will the attack have?has been notably reluctant to formally claim responsibility in public, though officials are doing so in private. That suggests Kyiv wants to preserve some ambiguity about how the attack took place, not least because it will hope to repeat the success again.

Certainly, the attackers knew what they were aiming for, likely striking more than one ammunition or fuel dump, sited unwisely near the aircraft, leading to the intense explosions and fire whose impact can be seen not just from the satellite imagery but fromparked nearby. Such precision can only be achieved with accurate local intelligence, a troubling point for the Russians.

The most likely scenario is that the dumps were struck from relatively short range, possibly with a kamikaze drone, in a daring raid by special forces or partisans. The use of long-range missiles has not been ruled out, as the airbase is theoretically in reach of Neptune missiles fired from Odesa, 165 miles away, but those studying the explosion videos have found little evidence to support this.

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