Education and high income not always a recipe for yes vote as ‘social tribes’ have influence, analysis shows
Voters line up to cast their vote on the voice at a polling centre in inner-Melbourne. Political strategist Kos Samaras said there were pockets around the country that don’t align with the idea that ‘income and education means yes’.Voters line up to cast their vote on the voice at a polling centre in inner-Melbourne. Political strategist Kos Samaras said there were pockets around the country that don’t align with the idea that ‘income and education means yes’.
Votes were heavily no in areas with high incomes and with high numbers of managers in industries such as banking, finance and real estate. Samaras singled out the Melbourne suburb of Greenvale, which voted 72% no, and has a weekly household income of about $2,200, as an example. Residents of Carlton North, where yes was 92%, gave him a “very strong, clear picture of what a yes voter looks like”. They tend to skew young and be tertiary qualified, monocultural, very progressive and they vote Greens, he said.
“We think there’s a lot of self-made wealth, people who come from working class backgrounds but are better off than their parents,” Samaras said. Lewis said the no campaign used the voice referendum for “the sort of identity politics that they can weaponise with groups of voters who are more focussed on their material needs”.They did this by casting the yes advocates as “elites”, even though their own campaign had generous backers, including the
Prof Nicholas Biddle, a researcher at the Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research and Methods, says“People with high levels of education are more likely to feel they can understand issues, that they can engage with the content and that their views are supported by the evidence,” he said.Biddle said education has also surpassed income as a predictor of voting direction because it is more likely to lead to permanent, more stable income.
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