Such an eventuality would upend all calculations in the presidential race here and in the US.
Australian diplomatic, defence and security agencies in Canberra, which have forged a close relationship with their counterparts in the Biden administration, are now having to contemplate the consequences for Australia of the possibility of no second term for Joe Biden.
His debate last week with Florida Governor and Republican presidential hopeful Ron DeSantis, though it brought forth repeated denials he was running and a staunch defence of Biden’s record as president, is nevertheless an indication of his interest in the White House. Close aides say he is eyeing 2028, but Newsom has an eye now for the presidential image.
Indeed, the Coalition would be very uncomfortable with him for being too soft on China. Recall that Malcolm Fraser when he became prime minister in 1975 had little time for Gerald Ford continuing the Nixon/Kissinger policy of détente with the USSR, seeing it as weakness in the face of persistent Soviet aggression.
The other considerable unknown in Canberra is just where Trump in a second term might land on US relations with China and the Pacific allies.
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