This article provides insights into how EUR/USD and GBP/USD may react to Friday’s U.S. jobs data, while highlighting the specific components of the employment report that need to be closely examined.
will be on high alert Friday morning when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its most recent employment survey. With the potential to alter the, this report is set to draw substantial attention and scrutiny, possibly resulting in greater market volatility heading into the weekend.. Separately, household data is expected to reveal that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8%, highlighting the persistent tightness in labor market conditions.
Looking at implied probabilities, the odds of a quarter-point rate rise at the December Fed meeting sits at roughly 20% at the time of writing. Market pricing has been in a state of flux lately, but the likelihood of another hike could rise materially if payroll numbers beat projections by a wide margin. Any NFP headline figure above 250,000 could have this effect on expectations.
EUR/USD rebounded on Thursday amid broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, but fell short of taking out overhead resistance stretching from 1.0670 to 1.0695. For confidence to improve further, we need to see a clear and clean move above 1.0670/1.0695 in the coming days. If this scenario unfolds, the bullish camp may reassert dominance, paving the way for a rally towards 1.0765, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July/October selloff.below trendline support at 1.
For a clearer picture of the short-term prospects for GBP/USD, it's vital to assess how prices behave around crucial levels over the next few days, taking into account two potential scenarios.If cable manages to breach dynamic resistance at 1.2200, we could see a move towards 1.2330. On further strength, the focus shifts to the 200-day simple moving average near 1.2450.If cable gets repelled lower from its current position, the pair could head toward its yearly lows at 1.2075, where the 38.
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