College football odds, picks and prediction for USC Trojans vs Oregon Ducks. Week 11 betting free pick and game analysis.
The Oregon Ducks have been an unstoppable force on offense and match up well against the disappointing USC Trojans and their horrendous stop unit. But our betting picks are looking beyond the spread because USC can still rack up points., the Ducks are up to as high as -15.5 at some spots while the total is set at 73.5.
Oregon’s offense has been a thing of beauty and hasn’t skipped a beat under first-year offensive coordinator Will Stein. The former UTSA Road Runners coordinator has picked right up where Kenny Dillingham left off last year before departing to become the head coach of the Arizona State Sun Devils. -contending quarterback with a whopping five years of experience. Bo Nix hasn’t used his legs quite as much this season but he’s stepped his game up as a passer with a career-best 9.
The Trojans check in at 122nd in EPA per play and 104th in success rate defensively and will be gashed by an Oregon offense ranking second in EPA per play and first in success rate. Five of USC’s last six opponents have reached 40 points and the only one who didn’t is Utah, who has an inept offense this year and still managed 34 points and 482 total yards on 6.9 yards per play.
The first touchdown prop involves reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams to find the end zone at -130. He’s rushed for a touchdown in each of his last three games and in four of his last five. It’s become evident that he needs to shoulder an even larger share of the workload as this team’s wide receiving group isn’t quite what it was a year ago and he now has five straight games with double-digit rushing attempts after he failed to do so in any of his first five games of the year.
This is a situation where you either try to ride the hot hand with Oregon, which is 8-1 ATS on the year, or try to catch the falling knife with USC, which is 2-8 ATS.
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