A study found that government verbal attacks against terrorist groups, such as denouncements and threats, may actually increase civilian attacks by those groups. The researchers analyzed data on the Islamic State group and found a correlation between government statements and increased violence against civilians.
After an Islamic State group-inspired attack in New Orleans killed 14 people on New Year’s Day 2025, President Joe Biden warned that terrorists would find “no safe harbor” in the U.S.
Although it has declined substantially since then, the group remains the world’s deadliest terror organization – responsible for nearly 2,000 deaths in 2023. Traditionally, researchers have dismissed statements like this as “cheap talk.” And government officials similarly do not take seriously the possibility that such statements might have unintended consequences or inflict actual costs.
To confirm this, we used a large-scale machine-coded dataset known as the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System to extract daily data on all events involving the Islamic State group for the period 2014 to 2020. We then employed a coding system known as CAMEO to identify events where governments threatened, denounced or otherwise verbally attacked the group.
Why it matters Government leaders face enormous pressures to address national security threats, and terrorism is a powerful source of anxiety for citizens.As such, publicly threatening or denouncing an organization offers a tempting alternative strategy. But there has been little research into how government leaders’ words might backfire, encouraging extremists to attack civilians.
TERRORISM ISLAMIC STATE GOVERNMENT RESPONSE CIVILIAN ATTACKS CREDIBILITY
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