Victoria's 14-day COVID-19 case average is down to 44.4, much better than the 63 predicted in modelling that was released to support the Government's roadmap to re-opening.
The modelling used an agent-based dynamic policy model which "imagines a simplified world" where people "move around like pieces on a chess board".
The modelling predicted "it is unlikely we will have aggressively suppressed the virus by mid-September". "Actuals always beat assumptions, data always trumps any model, even a robust model that has had input from many experts, multiple universities," he said.Professor Blakely said Victoria's numbers were "tracking down nicely".
But he said the structure of the roadmap was "very good", the steps were "well-defined" and having triggers as well as dates was important. The Premier yesterday said it was important to look at not just the case numbers but the circumstances of each new case, and allow for the passage of time.Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews says he will "adjust" the timeline if cases drop ahead of schedule.
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