Waiting for Obama

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Waiting for Obama
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The Democratic establishment is counting on Obama to stop Trump and, perhaps, stave off Bernie as well. But can his cerebral politics still stir voters in an age of extremes?

Today, almost every Democratic presidential campaign starts with what one close adviser to Barack Obama calls “The Pilgrimage”: the journey to the West End to meet the former president.

He has said he usually offers three big points: Don’t run if you don’t think you are the best person to be president; make sure you understand the toll a campaign will take on your family; and ask yourself, “Can you win?” As he put it recently at a donor event in Washington, “Not are you guaranteed a win, but do you have a theory, a pathway whereby you win not just a primary but you also win a general election, because there is not an empty exercise if you, in fact, get in.

The post-presidency of Obama is unlike any other. Many presidents have had to navigate the tricky politics of leaving office when a president from the other party takes over. And plenty of presidents have had to grapple with the delicate situation of their vice president seeking a promotion.

“In a perfect world, he would have retreated to a greater degree from public life than he has, much in the same way that I think George W. Bush did in his post-presidency,” Holder told me. “He would have liked to have been, though he’s too young, an elder statesman.”This was not the hand he got to play. Throughout 2017 the main struggle of the small staff Obama assembled in the West End was how to deal with what they viewed as a crazy president personally obsessed with Obama.

With Trump’s victory, most Democrats were suddenly in a “fierce urgency” mood, while Obama retreated to an “arc of the moral universe” post-presidency. It was Lewis’ job to help Obama figure out the balance. The plan was to stay quiet, let other Democrats step up as the face of the party, and weigh in only when, as Obama said at the time, “our core values may be at stake.” The first test came within 10 days of leaving.

Just figuring out a normal private life in Washington could sometimes be difficult for him and Michelle. “They divide the world into two halves: people who knew them before they were famous and everyone else,” said a former political adviser. “They are very walled off. They are afraid of hangers on.”

In that speech, while cataloging the litany of authoritarian trends and making obvious references to the ways that he believes Trump has debased American politics, nonetheless his prescription was defined by anti-radicalism. He decried equally “unregulated, unbridled, unethical capitalism” and “old-style command-and-control socialism” in favor of traditional American liberalism, “an inclusive market-based system.

According to several people close to him, his experience campaigning during 2018 made him even more convinced that Democrats had to be careful not to mistake the passion and excitement on Twitter for candidates like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for where the public was ideologically, especially in the coming general election against Trump.

Biden, Obama told people close to him before Biden even entered the race, would have to “earn” it. There would be no endorsement. Besides, he liked to say, fighting it out in a tough primary is what made Obama a strong candidate for the general election. As for Warren, the candidate who has tried to bridge the worlds of Sanders and Obama, Obama’s relationship with Warren is. Back in early 2015, when Warren was considering running for president and started to excite progressives, Obama said privately that if Democrats rallied around her as their nominee it would be a repudiation of him—a clear sign that his economic decisions after the Great Recession had been seen as inadequate.

“I don't take it as a criticism when people say, ’Hey, it's great, Obama did what he did and now we want to do more,’” Obama said. ”I hope so. That's the whole point.” Another adviser added, “I don’t think he was trying to benefit Biden here. Buttigieg benefits from this too. Knowing Obama as well as I do, he doesn’t want to help anyone or hurt anyone, he just wants to win the 2020 election.”

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