Treasuries surged after an ugly first half as weak economic data added to recession fears. A late-day rebound in stocks was exacerbated by low volume ahead of Monday’s US holiday.
Bond yields sank, with the five-year rate at one stage plunging more than a quarter of a percentage point. Traders are paying the most since March to hedge against a deeper slide in 10-year US yields. All major groups in the SThe risk of a renewed selloff in equities is still high as investors are pricing in a mild recession, Goldman Sachs strategists said. Corporate earnings will likely come under pressure as margins face the test of inflation and weakening consumer sentiment, they added.
Market participants now look to the second-quarter earnings season, the Labor Department’s June employment report, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting expected later in July. ISM’s report seemed to back the view that the economy is cooling and inflation appears to be past its peak. This has raised the possibility that the Fed might have wiggle room for a dovish pivot after its second straight 75 basis point interest rate hike expected in July.
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