Investors have lived for half a year in the shadow of the bear, and now find the the indexes on the cusp of breaking back into the light.
div > div.group > p:first-child"> The market has burned up a brimming reservoir of pessimism and done just enough to encourage the bulls, without fully disproving the skeptics case that last year's highs will go unchallenged.
Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at Leuthold Group, was positioned for a bear phase well before the fourth-quarter slide and remains skeptical, but still grants that the rebound has moved beyond a mere reflex rally:"Based on standard technical retracements and on our mortality tables for bear market rallies, the best-case S&P 500 bounce 'should' have exhausted itself in the 2,700-2,750 range." It didn't.
The absence of imminent U.S. recession signals, an overt move toward policy patience by the Federal Reserve and sticky-low Treasury yields bolstering equity valuations — this is the palliative cocktail that eased Wall Street's end-of-cycle flu. How much more upside can be wrung from these forces alone? A fair question. Roughly the same factors pushed the forward P/E for the S&P 500 in the first half of 2016 a bit higher than it is now, toward 17. The bullish take: If confidence returns about a resumption of earnings growth later this year, that risk premium has room to shrink through higher stock prices.
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