It is early in the year to talk tropics, but there are some trends that could help the complex organize further.
Models for the past several days have been locking onto a system developing in the Gulf in the middle of the week.Low pressure will likely develop midweek in the Gulf
With the low over the Gulf, there will be a very narrow window for the storm system to organize further.Water temperatures over much of the Gulf are warmer than average. While these water temps are below the threshold needed for a powerful system, they are warm enough to possibly allow a weak system to form.Secondly, the upper-level air pattern will be conducive for further organization. An upper-level low will likely sit on top of the surface low, allowing potential further development.
If this system in the Gulf does develop, it will be the first recorded April system in the Gulf in recorded history.Regardless of development, it is becoming likely Southeast Georgia and Northeast Florida will see some impacts.
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