Oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf explains why Amoc breakdown could be catastrophic for both humans and marine life
he dangers of a collapse of the main Atlantic Ocean circulation, known as Amoc, have been “greatly underestimated” and would have devastating and irreversible impacts, according to an open letter released at the weekend by 44 experts from 15 countries.
The effects include a cooling of the northern hemisphere, particularly northwestern Europe. There would also be a shift of the tropical rainfall belt to the south, which is bad because the rains will move away from the rainforests to regions that are not used to so much rainfall. So this will mean droughts in some regions and floods in others.
The key thing about climate change is that both the ecosystem of the Earth as well as human settlements and infrastructures are highly adapted to what the climate was like in previous centuries. So any change – whether global heating or global cooling – will always be bad because it will lead to maladaptation. Think of the tremendous flooding we have seen somewhere in the world almost every week in the last months.
One thing is for sure: humanity will not die out. But for some countries that will be in the midst of this, like Norway, and Scotland, the risks will be existential and raise the question whether people can continue to live there or whether most of them would rather move.That is hard to tell. It is a trade-off between more distant futures and things that are already happening.
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