'We don’t want to cry wolf' How forecasters predict L.A.'s next huge rain storm

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'We don’t want to cry wolf' How forecasters predict L.A.'s next huge rain storm
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Based on their expertise, forecasters at the National Weather Service in Oxnard correctly anticipated that even the machine-calculated, eye-popping rain totals were probably an underprediction.

When it came to forecasting L.A.'s biggest winter storm of the season, local meteorologists had a secret weapon: experience. For sure, there was plenty of computer modeling available to indicate the Southland was in for a severe — and potentially dangerous — soaking. But based on their expertise, forecasters at the National Weather Service in Oxnard correctly anticipated that even the machine-calculated, eye-popping rain totals were probably an underprediction.

Such coordination between meteorologists and politicians hasn't always happened. Unforgettably, although the National Weather Service office in Monterey issued a flood watch three days before a significant storm landed on Dec. 31, 2022, San Francisco officials were caught unprepared by a record deluge that flooded swaths of low-lying parts of the city and left residents and business owners furious. There have also been memorable misses.

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