It may not be explicitly mentioned by the RBA when it keeps rates on hold, but the biggest risk to the global economy is the United States's debt levels and who wins this week's presidential election.
But regardless of how the US election swings, we are almost certain to experience increased instability at a political, social and economic level.
While Donald Trump, who is expected to declare victory whether he wins or not, has tapped into that deep vein of discontent, his policies, such as they are, offer little hope for economic salvation and may make the situation far worse.The US is Australia's most important military ally, one of our biggest trading partners and a critical diplomatic partner in the Indo-Pacific.
As for the US, the RBA most likely will deftly avoid any mention of the election and stick to something far easier to predict.When the US Federal Reserve meets later this week, its leader Jerome Powell is widely tipped to usher in another quarter of a percentage point cut. That's caused widespread concern globally. The Fed is the world's biggest central bank and the greenback is the global reserve currency.
Then there is the push to bring US firms back home. That could take years and, again could end up pushing prices higher without adding significantly to jobs. Even in heavy industry, the factories of today are far less labour intensive than they were half a century ago.
Trump Us Election Kamala Harris Inflation Cpi Interest Rates Reserve Bank Of Australia Rba Reserve Bank Us Federal Reserve Federal Reserve Fed Free Trade Trade Tariffs Cash Rate Income Tax Jerome Powell Michele Bullock Tax Cuts
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