What are the intensities and frequencies of extreme epidemics? UniPadova Pandemic Epidemic COVID19 Coronavirus COVIDPandemic
By Bhavana KunkalikarSep 13 2022Reviewed by Aimee Molineux In a recent study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal, researchers assessed the intensities and frequencies of extreme novel epidemics.
About the study In the present study, researchers calculated the yearly probability of experiencing extreme epidemics by assembling and reviewing a global dataset of historical epidemics between 1600 and the present. In total, 395 epidemic episodes observed between 1600 and 1945 were the subject of the present study. For 182 of these outbreaks, data on the length and the number of fatalities were available. Given that an epidemic had already occurred, the team employed the probability distribution of epidemic intensity to investigate the 182 recorded epidemic intensities between 1600 and 1945. Additionally, the probability distribution of how many epidemics would occur in a particular year was considered.
Results A generalized Pareto distribution over nearly four orders of magnitude of the independent variable provided an efficient description of the empirical exceedance frequency distribution of epidemic intensity. The GPD displayed a power-law tail, which denoted the lack of a typical epidemic intensity and a gradually declining probability of intense epidemics.
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