Economists expect job gains to slow to 170,000 in August and an actual number below that estimate has the potential to buttress the argument for a soft landing.
Financial markets took Thursday’s inflation update from the Federal Reserve’s favorite indicator largely in stride, turning their attention to Friday’s nonfarm payroll report in hopes of finding further signs of a labor-market slowdown.
Data released earlier this week demonstrates how much is riding on labor-market conditions right now. On Tuesday, stock investors cheered reports that showed job openings fell to a 28-month low of 8.8 million in July and consumer confidence dipped in August. Then Wednesday’s private-sector payrolls report from the firm ADP reflected a lower-than-expected 177,000 jobs gained in August.
“All eyes are now on tomorrow’s U.S. jobs report,” they said in a note. “Our U.S. economists are expecting nonfarm payrolls to slow down further to 150k, and yesterday we had some further evidence of a softening labor market from the ADP’s report of private payroll.” “The setup for NFP [nonfarm payrolls] unquestionably leaves the true shock an upside surprise,” Jeffery wrote in a note on Thursday. “Nonetheless, given what’s been a resilient labor market and the Fed’s consistent messaging that a single month’s data does not a trend make, even an expected slowest pace of hiring since December 2020 would not be enough to take another hike this year off the table.
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