ANALYSIS: The stalemate over Russia's military build-up near Ukraine shows how differently the Putin and Biden administrations interpret the security situation on Europe's periphery.
Russian troops take part in drills in the Rostov region near Russia's border with Ukraine in December, 2021.The flurry of diplomatic activity last week over Russia’s latest military build-up near Ukraine ended, as expected, with no breakthrough agreement. Russian President Vladimir Putin called it a “dead end”.
For Russia, the US is the chief instigator of instability in Europe, pushing Western-dominated political and security institutions, like NATO and the European Union, ever closer to its borders. Given this disconnect, it is puzzling why the talks are happening at all, and what might possibly be gained from them.
Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko accused NATO of trying to contain Russia and described the presence of NATO forces in eastern Europe as “intolerable” for Moscow.With the talks so far following the expected script, it raises the broader question of why Mr Putin has sought to escalate tensions so dramatically, and what his endgame might be.
Russian President Vladimir Putin listens during a meeting in the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Thursday, January 13, 2022.Second, Russia’s brinkmanship also helps reveal potential fault lines among NATO members. This is intended to wheedle out those who are more risk-averse, like Germany, from those such as Poland who see Russia as a clear threat to their territorial integrity.This is partly a pragmatic political gambit to prop up faltering support for his leadership.
Yet that is hardly persuasive. For one thing, Mr Putin is already in de facto possession of these regions, and leaving the negotiating table with only parts of Ukraine to show for it would hardly be a ringing triumph.
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